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(For statistical material go to our References section!)

Crisis Maven has had parents who lived through several crises open-eyed at least one of which had spooky similarities with the ongoing economic crises, i.e. that of 1929. He is probably unique (among those who survive today) in a sense that his father fought in two world wars (and spoke about it) and CrisisMaven himself was politically active in various fields, however, without seeking office or personal gain.
For several reasons he will not currently give his real name (however: even if you see common names in Internet profiles – can you be sure they’re actually real?) but still felt it was a matter of urgency and conscience to make his voice heard in times like these.
It has been said that men repeat their mistakes until they’re really perfect at them, however, CrisisMaven has a feeling humankind has currently painted itself into a corner where it doesn’t have the luxury of social experiments, be it in areas like finance and economics, nuclear energy, supranational bodies, genetics, climate, demographics or many others.

  1. Toilknind
    2011-09-18 at 19:48

    Hi!
    Very interesting name by the forum crisismaven.wordpress.com

    Thanks for the help in this question, I too consider, that the easier, the better …

  2. 2011-03-23 at 07:15

    Your blog is so informative keep up the good work!!!!. Just discovered this blog through Google, what a pleasant shock! A rise in : ).

  3. 2010-11-27 at 21:18

    Hallo – was ist denn aus Deinem Statistik-Blog geworden? Du bist ja extrem ambitiös gestartet, nun sehe ich, dass Du seit vielen Monaten hier nichts mehr gemacht hast!?
    Ich hoffe es geht Dir gut!

  4. 2010-04-29 at 12:55

    A good article Thank you!

  5. 2010-04-14 at 18:33

    Some in the above comments say Crisis Maven should not present his study as a systematic guide in economics and I ask why not. I have been an advocate for workers dignity and fair trade – (and real world trade ) and I find his studies as excellent sources for following the trail of the free traders of the world. When I see the economists on the stock market tv channel talk about the trade deficit being just a comparative statistic but it is not necessarily a bad thing, I wonder what business or corporate venture, they were ever in. The trade deficit caused the most massive dislocation of jobs in U.S. history and they call this a good thing.
    This reminds me of a college economic professor who once told me that there is no such thing as a bad or good economy. He said economics just represents a measurement of different statistics. If economists do not know what is understood to be a bad economy in common sense terms, why should anyone rely on much of anything they say.
    I worked in several factories while going to college and found a vast void between the college classrooms and the factory floors. They did not match up. The problem still remains. Those of us who have to live in the real world know what caused our economic crisis and part of the cause came from places like Harvard and their economic cults there.
    After 60 years in the business world which includes more than one business venture of my own and dealing with the highest echelons in major corporations, I find that many educated economists are part of the problem and not the solution.

    See my real world overviews at http://tapsearh.com/tapartnews where we forecasted the economic crisis years ago based on many real experts who predicted the coming of the Bewildered New World. Some of the experts include Sir James Goldsmith who wrote The Trap and led populist movements in England and France. Manuel Castells who wrote several books about globalization and free trade was right on the money with his conclusions which predicted the economic crisis years ago. We were part of every computer generation and traveled to the Silicon Valley for years. Our real world experience also includes doing business with China.

    See all of our Tapsearch Com sites and blogs across the worldwide web – Start with the original site above and also see http://tapsearch.com/flatworld http://tapsearch.com/communications-by-rank or see http://multiurl.com/la/ray-tapajna-tapsearcher (Search under tapsearch com, tapsearcher, tapart news, arklineart or ray tapajna for thousands of references and results on the worldwide web.)

    • 2010-04-15 at 00:58

      Thanks Ray for your kind remarks. “found a vast void between the college classrooms and the factory floors” – indeed as a consultant (though not as long as you :-) ) I found the same disconnect. I used to say that I got more valuable information on the real condition of a company from talking to a janitor (and as an equal) than by participating in a board room meeting. As for my “Economics Study Guide” which has been criticised as you refer to – it will build up gradually as I intend to synthesise it from building blocks rather than make it a monolith no one wants to read or can understand. These blocks are posts like in the “Musings”, “Fallacy”, “Law” and “Doom” series where I try to expound economic reasoning against the backdrop of contemporary events rather than going down the arduous road of “what 1929 teaches us for today” (which leads to just printing more money). So step by step we’ll get to where critics should find it hard to prove their case. In parallel the crisis will unfold and “hand us their heads on silver platters” so to speak, as people who nod too approvingly to the powers that be always in the end see their heads fall off.

  6. 2010-03-20 at 22:34

    Well, I think both James and Crisismaven have basically different point of view on economic. I’m not skimming this blog, nor James blog (if available), but I have been learn from market that beside light and dark, lay down the grey side. That’s (perhaps) Crisismaven have build in this blog. Enlightening us of the third true side of economic that cannot explained on theories build by our prof in our school. That’s actually soros do on earlier day of his career..

  7. Ossama Hamed
    2010-03-09 at 15:40

    I have the pleasure to brief on our Data Visualization software “Trend Compass”.

    TC is a new concept in viewing statistics and trends in an animated way by displaying 5 axis (X, Y, Time, Bubble size & Bubble color) instead of just the traditional X and Y axis. It could be used in analysis, research, presentation etc. In the banking sector, we have Deutsche Bank New York as our client.

    Link on Chile’s Earthquake (27/02/2010):

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/EarthQuakeinChile/

    This a link on weather data :

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/aims/

    This is a bank link to compare Deposits, Withdrawals and numbers of Customers for different branches over time ( all in 1 Chart) :

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/bank-trx/

    Misc Examples :

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/airline/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/stockmarket1/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/tax/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/football/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/swinefludaily/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/flu/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/babyboomers/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/bank-trx/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/advertising/

    This is a project we did with Princeton University on US unemployment :

    http://www.epicsyst.com/main3.swf

    A 3 minutes video presentation of above by Professor Alan Krueger Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University and currently Chief Economist at the US Treasury using Trend Compass :

    http://epicsyst.com/trendcompass/princeton.aspx?home=1

    Latest financial links on the Central Bank of Egypt:

    http://www.epicsyst.com/trendcompass/samples/Aggregate-balance-sheet/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/trendcompass/samples/balance-sheet

    http://www.epicsyst.com/trendcompass/samples/banks-deposits-by-maturity/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/trendcompass/samples/egyptian-banks/

    http://www.epicsyst.com/trendcompass/samples/currency-by-denomination/

    I hope you could evaluate it and give me your comments. So many ideas are there.

    You can download a trial version. It has a feature to export EXE,PPS,HTML and AVI files. The most impressive is the AVI since you can record Audio/Video for the charts you create.

    http://epicsyst.com/trendcompass/FreeVersion/TrendCompassv1.2_DotNet.zip

    All the best.

  8. 2010-03-08 at 23:17

    What a nice surprise!
    You have a very juicy succulent data base over here! My recent economy interests have just reached the 2nd step on the E-NFO stareway to illumination…the economic information nirvana. Thanks! :)

    Glad you found the infographic links useful.

    Cheers and keep tracking :)

  9. 2010-02-15 at 10:09

    I agree; mankind has manoeuvred itself into a cul-de-sac with very little room to turn or alter the course. That would need broad lateral thinking across all and any borders; the current alleged democratic way of “we-are-all-experts-and know-better” will lead us deeper into destruction. The system is programmed to break simply because breakage was not foreseen; the EURO installed with no backdoor just represents one of those lousy constructions that base their short-term success on growth for growth’s sake. From here on it will be learning-by-surviving.

    Let’s watch.Good luck.

  10. Nieel
    2010-02-12 at 20:34

    Well its more of a personal hobby/challenge, I like to make sense of what I learn in “skool” by making something constructive out of it.
    Btw I was aiming my question at Sabine McNeill, I think she is better suited to answer that question.

    To Sabine : If you know some good interesting books or article relating to what I am looking for, could you post it?

  11. Nieel
    2010-02-12 at 13:31

    Dear James stop being such a douche.

    I just found this blog and I think its marvelous.

    Though I agree that most of the arguments that Chris Maven put forward are not due for a Nobel Prize, he still deserves some merit for tackling the economic topics in a very sensible and practical way in which us non-nobel prize winners can comprehend and argue about.

    Being a proponent of Technical Analysis, I believe one of the most important factor to take into consideration is investor sentiment and this blog just makes the cut.

    So if you want to hear about big big string theory type of discussions go read a book or go to the library.

    • James
      2010-02-12 at 19:19

      I have no problem with CrisisMaven creating a blog about his own beliefs. If CrisisMaven wants to use this blog to present his ideas to the world, that’s fine. If others want to read his ideas, that’s fine. However, he is pitching this blog as “a systematic study guide in economics” when he clearly has little education in the subject. That is fraud. If pointing out that the emperor has no clothes makes me a douche, then so be it.

      • 2010-02-12 at 19:51

        Well I always cherish any exchange of opinion, however you have yet to refute the answers I gave you to your positions on the crisis and central banking etc. before you can accuse me of not having an economics “education”. All I can see so far is that neither Krugman, nor Bernanke or Greenspan have an economic education and of course I wouldn’t want to be lumped together with such lot which is why I must insist I either have one or if you insist THEY have one then of course I must have NONE. The jury is out until we see the USA or other “great” OECD nations default either directly or by (hyper) inflation. That will be very educative although painful.

  12. James
    2010-02-05 at 12:35

    CrisisMaven, I’m not asking you to be a college professor. All I’m asking is if you have an EDUCATION in economics. Do you have a Ph.D.? A master’s? Do you even have a bachelor’s degree in the subject? A bachelor’s in a related subject? Have you ever read any introductory or intermediate economics TEXTBOOKS? Sorry, but you and your readers seem to be arguing that ignorance is as desirable as knowledge.

  13. amartinoro
    2010-01-31 at 22:21

    Hi, thanks for adding my blog to the blogroll. I was a bit surprised, because my blog is one of the very few links you have put there. I was wondering where you got to know my blog.

    • 2010-01-31 at 22:31

      Hi Angel, I can’t tell you “exactly” how I came across your blog since I use search engines rather excessively and whenever I decide e.g. to put someone on my blog roll it’s a “here and now” decision or else I would loose sight of it again. However, I had Latin at school and can read Romanic languages well enough to grasp the gist of what’s written in many cases and I wanted to make it a point to make my economics blog used and found “the world over” although it is mainly in English (some German translations will eventually follow) plus I want to point out to readers from the English blogsphere that there iks not only English content on the web.

  14. James
    2010-01-30 at 06:07

    If you’re pitching this blog as an educational resource for students, then I’d like to know your academic credentials. Right now I’m skeptical. People with relevant education usually don’t hide it. After skimming through this blog, you strike me as someone who “learned” economics by reading finance blogs and pop econ books rather than textbooks and academic journals. I doubt many college professors want their students “learning” economics from someone who hasn’t actually learned it themselves.

    • 2010-01-30 at 07:40

      That’s all fair enough, however, there are reasons why I want to keep my privacy. And I am not from the academe which is not to say I don’t have an above-average IQ and am uneducated, least of all in economics. To pursue an academic career certainly has its charms but to get there in economics requires to adhere to certain schools and that is not my cup of tea, plain and simple.

      And, sorry to say this, but anyone who talks about “his” students having to behave like this or that (after all, child prodigies aside, they’re adults) reminds me a bit of a proponent of a nanny state. If and wherever students are able to think for themselves they can take my reasoning and try and follow it up into “every nook and cranny” to see if it is sound or can be refuted. That’s exactly what students need to learn and which is often grossly neglected nowadays due to an accent in early academic training on passing exams. And after they’ve been passed, well, you’re part of a school that by and large prevails at today’s academic chairs that, forgive my bluntness, hasn’t been able to prevent that very crisis that motivated me to begin to publish and to begin now. Still, if someone doesn’t want to read my posts – most of us live in a free society, no one is forced to. But if they do, everything I write is either self-evident or can be corroborated by looking at the facts made available there and then. After all, that’s why I try to provide ample external references, again not to be slavishly swallowed but to again be critically appraised. And if in doubt, anyone can comment and as far as my time allows I will try to answer and do any bona fide argument justice. And I appreciate you to be one of the very first, welcome!

      Certainly there are many schools in economic thought that compete with each other and what is currently taught at most universities is leaning rather toward some concept of macro-economic reasoning that is highly controversial on epistemological grounds. I suggest, if you really want to make the litmus test, to take all those mathematical concepts of macro-economic reasoning to a professor of a faculty of pure mathematics. If you do, there will be little left after that of the theory but a profound mutual shock that goes right down to the very foundations of that aggregate reasoning.

      • 2010-02-02 at 12:00

        Hear! Hear! That is precisely the point of my post, albeit, perhaps, not as clearly made as I might have wished.

    • Justizia
      2010-02-01 at 01:37

      Is it too hard for you to think about theories in itself and the likelyhood that they are right? Is a theory in your opinion only valid, when the one who announced it has any academic credential? Then go on and buy organic food with the respective labels! Go green, because the majory of “scientists” state that it’s the truth that there is something like man made global warming (oh, sorry, nowadays it’s just climate change, because the earth is cooling since about 10 years). That is good for you! Of course you are sceptical. But I think you are not sceptical to learn how econonomics really works, but about the chance for your career to earn money with a certificate of some moron academic. It is absolutely arrogant to think, that beside an academic career nobody can ever learn anything! And if you won’t change your opinion now, then your whole academic career will be worth only for working on the fields. I think you should save your money or that your Daddy and start to learn and to be really sceptical. By the way – how many languages do you speak to read online what’s going on beside your personal dust circle?

      This blog is the most fantastic I have ever read.

      • 2010-02-01 at 03:01

        Thanks! I presume you are referring to James’ comments?
        Anyhow, I’ll do my best to eventually also persuade the sceptics …

    • 2010-02-01 at 14:21

      Dear James

      I am a mathematician, former programmer and system analyst and have analysed our monetary system and thus economics more than I ever wanted to. I have also developed software methods that go beyond anything that is currencly available. See http://3d-metrics.com

      Hence I had to conclude that academic thinking only produces “more and more” of “less and less”. In fact, academic organisational culture prevents people from being truly creative.

      As far as economics is concerned, it’s only a “soft” science anyhow. But I’d go much further: it’s a pseudoscience, set up by bankers to hide how they create money out of nothing.

      There are enough of us who have acquired economic (and other) knowledge outside academia, especially at times of net and web.

      To learn from somebody else rather than be able to think your own thoughts and have your own feelings is not very laudable in my universe of thoughts. Glad to differ!

      Sabine
      http://www.NationaleSchulden.eu

      • Nieel
        2010-02-12 at 13:42

        2 thumbs up :

        “Hence I had to conclude that academic thinking only produces “more and more” of “less and less”. In fact, academic organisational culture prevents people from being truly creative.”

        I recently started to develop my own personal algorithm to predict market trends but its awfully inefficient and ugly, programming in Java.

        Any Tips for me?

        • 2010-02-12 at 14:05

          Well, I’ve heard some people prefer Python over Java, but while I have done some programming (all the way back to Assembler, Cobol, Basic etc. decades ago) I am not familiar with it. When it comes to trending etc., I’ve heard people (traders) prefer tradestation software over doing it from scratch. though I’ve yet to see somone personally to become fabulously rich :-)

        • 2010-02-21 at 10:01

          Sorry, Nieel, I only read your comment today.

          I can’t your question about forecasting tips really. For my “outside the box” method is still proprietary and definitely depends on thinking rather than programming, let alone the language.

          I’d LOVE to work with progressive and selfless traders and investors such as CrisisMaven to develop what I call an Ethical Investment Network. See http://bit.ly/9xOwM6

          BUT, I’ve got a programmer in Southampton cut out for the job. For my challenge has been the “brain dumping” from my thinking to any programmer. I used to read dumps and machine language, too, but since then I’ve developed concepts that on one hand are magnificent but on the other beyond current academic teaching.

          Once expressed as code, they become tools of investigation for everybody to have their own insights. That’s my goal.

          Forecasting is one of three “software methods” derived from my “far out concepts” which were called “unscientific” by a former CERN colleague.

          At the same time, a prof of physics, computing and maths whose company was set up to raise money for inventors said “this is the most important work since relativity theory”. But then he didn’t support me any more and claimed that I misquoted him…

          Hoping that you appreciate my “existential dilemma”,

          Sabine :)

          PS. My “technical analysis” has developed into “numerical analysis” which includes measuring time, since market data consists of time series.

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