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The End Game or: How the Dupes were Duped or: The Euro Ten Years on

2011-12-10 1 comment

The Euro was probably the most hyped-in currency the world may have ever known.

That fact alone should have been reason for suspicion.

In this article we contrast some of the eulogies heaped on the Euro back in around 2001/2002 when it was introduced as a tangible currency with these past weeks’ near-obituaries.

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Economic Musings X: Legal Tender – Legal or Tender or What?

2010-04-16 9 comments

After World War II when the German Reichsmark was discredited and people were starving they would travel from their city to the local farms … Read more…

Bloom of Doom VIII: US Figures Stronger than Feared

If you think the title is a contradiction, well, not more so than the idea that debt or subsidies could increase wealth. Where truth can’t win by argument it needs to do so by stealth (that almost rhymes). The President of the United States has published a report on the state of the economy which proves how uneconomical the state has become. From that report you can glean two things, the bad and the ugly: the US economy has greatly deteriorated further and it seems beyond the point of no return.
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Bloom of Doom VII: The Borrower of last Resort

Not so very long ago the idea had firmly taken root that the Fed was the “lender of the last resort”, meaning that if no one else would lend to banks, the Fed would, thus preventing bank runs. Now it always struck CrisisMaven as odd that banks under any circumstance should be so little creditworthy that they couldn’t get credit. After all, aren’t banks the “eponym” of creditworthy, so to speak? But that the Fed one day would need to borrow from these banks no one else would lend to is an irony of fate we need to chew on a little to fathom all its dire implications.

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Economic Fallacy V: Can CPI measure Deflation?

2010-03-23 1 comment

In a recent post Woodford warns of deflation threat as CPI drops to 3% CrisisMaven found another instance of the widespread belief that not only sinking prices (misspelt “deflation”) are harmful as they cause buyers “to strike” but that the housing market has “deflated”. Read more…

Economic Fallacy IV: Buyers’ Strike during Deflation?

2010-03-21 2 comments

If buyers don’t buy during a period of deflation why would sellers sell during periods of inflation? Read more…

Economic Musings III: The Bubble Analogy

2010-03-19 5 comments

There’s this fear that if a financial bubble bursts this would be tantamount to deflation (after all, when an inflatable dinghy bursts it’s called deflation). And because deflation is deemed to be a bad thing the panacea must be (re)inflation of “the” economy. Well, let’s look at what happens when a balloon bursts … Read more…

Economic Fallacy III: Looming Deflation?

There is a wide-spread fear, not the least among leading Fed staff and many economic pundits, that we are in a period of deflation, not inflation, or, when it comes to testifying in Congress, we are only not in a period of deflation because the Fed, unlike 1929 and the years following, actively prevented it by (re)inflating the money supply, stimulating credit etc.

However, they say, things haven’t yet worked out so well that the threat of deflation has already been banned successfully. But was there ever any threat? Read more…

Economic Musings II: The Euro as a Basket Case

2010-02-24 8 comments

How not to Introduce a New Currency

The Euro has been touted as something of a capstone of the European Unification project. Now it may well prove its stumbling block. How ironic. And at the same time how stupid and humiliating!

How (and why) has it all happened? Read more…

Economic Musings I: The State of “the” Economy

2010-02-21 3 comments

It’s always amazed CrisisMaven how little a trained economist could know of the world going on around him or her, so as to not spot a bubble for example. Obviously it has to do with the indicators they use which are only remotely related to reality. Those who can only calculate a model with maybe two enterprises and “a” state are probably not able to fathom a newspaper article talking about how the fashion in clothes affects shoe manufacturers. Or that there is an association of dye manufacturers and the fashion industry that today knows which shades of green, blue or pink will be en vogue in, say 2014. Read more…

Bloom of Doom VI: Will China Survive the Crisis?

China. like Japan in the late seventies and 1980s, has been dubbed an economic miracle. What if, like totally bankrupt Japan, this giant just stood on feet of clay, a zombie, a dead man walking? Are any of its statistics to be trusted? Or do we see just another Samuelson fallacy about the resilience and “productivity” of communism? Read more…

Welcome, Visitor: here’s what you can do …

with this blog … (First time visitor? – Why not  start here!) Read more…

Bloom of Doom V: “We have control of the ship, we have a plan”

We have control of the ship, we have a plan” is what Spain’s deputy premier María Teresa Fernández de la Vega is meant to have said in response to mounting fears of sovereign default.

The ECONOMIST: Adding in the deficit  - Debt traps revisited

The ECONOMIST: Adding in the deficit - Debt traps revisited

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Bloom of Doom IV: Safe Assets and Sore Surprises

2010-02-02 2 comments

Many still think sovereign debt is safe (although I’d like to know how many “elder statesmen” still invest in these “assets” themselves today). This is astonishing at the best of times: would you give credit to a boy who still lived at home at the age of 200+ with no income of his own? Oh, of course, I see, you hope his Mum and Dad Taxpayer will foot the bill. So if he goes to the “Royal Casino” and buys chips, looses big time, then even scraps his old, but perfectly serviceable car to get a new one, you still give him more credit and more, and more?

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Bloom of Doom II: Of Mortgage Brokers, ARMs, Attrition and Marathons

2010-01-28 5 comments

When first I started looking at dying mortgage banking companies back in 2007 (the time I began looking at the brewing crisis seriously) I stumbled upon the “implode-O-meter” which had begun tracking this new phenomenon in, I believe, 2006. Casualties were then in the two digit range. Soon it became three digits and ever since it has been “good going“, however, the pace slowed considerably in the second half of 2009 if I recall that correctly only to pick up recently. I remember the figures 372, then 373, then 374 to have had a rather long life span.

However, looking today we’re at 378, some jump at last. (Feb. 22nd 2010: 381) Read more…

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